Run 4, Day Fifteen: 14 Closes, 2 Wins, −$57.73 — 5STAR Peaked +131%, Then Wiped Out −96%; Book Falls to $5.12
Day fifteen of Run 4 is the seventh full day under the v6 guardrails Paul approved on October 30 ("apply all 7"). This diary covers every bot run from 23:10 CST on November 4 — the first run after yesterday's diary closed at 18:10 CST — through the last run before publication at 17:27 CST on November 5. Eight runs in all; no bot run printed after the 17:27 CST run before this diary was written at 21:30 CST, so whatever the next run does belongs to Day Sixteen. The bot bought 9 positions — all HIGH at $12.50 — and closed 14: 2 wins, 12 losses. Closed P&L: −$57.73. All numbers below are straight from trades.log and paper_portfolio.json. Nothing here is real money.
Closed P&L (sum of the 14 SELL lines): −$57.73 — winners +$5.51, losers −$63.24; each SELL figure is net of its exit fee
Fees: fee_paid $72.37 → $74.64 (+$2.27)
Paper value: $65.53 at the end of yesterday's diary → $5.12 at the 17:27 CST STATUS (−$60.41 across STATUS prints; the $2.68 gap to closed P&L is buy fees ($1.08) plus open-position re-marking between the two STATUS prints — the five positions open at day start were marked above what they closed for)
Run 4 totals: $5.12, −$624.33 (−99.2%) vs the $629.45 reset baseline; −$994.88 (−99.5%) vs the original $1,000 start
Closed record: 223 trades, 65 wins / 157 losses
Cash: $5.12 · Open: 0 positions · SAFE: 0 trades · MEDIUM: 1 close (INJUSD, bought Nov 4) · HIGH: every other trade today
All seven guardrails from October 30 stayed in force: (1) HIGH size $12.50, max 8 open; (2) a hard bar — no Solana HIGH entries at unified points ≥ 50; (3) a liquidity band of $20,000–$65,000 on all HIGH entries; (4) the news lane PARKED; (5) no re-buy of the same ticker within 24 hours of a stop-out; (6) unpriceable for 24 hours → close at $0; (7) losing-streak halving applies to HIGH. Guardrail 7 did not change any buy size: the losing streak reached five during the 10:50 run (GHOST, TOPLESS, INJUSD, Democat, MINTED), yet the two buys that followed in the same run printed at $12.50 — no $6.25 halved buy appeared — and COGE bought at 14:11 printed $12.50 too, with the streak at six. The streak ran to eight by the final run. Five HIGH-STOPs fired (VI, COGE, 5STAR, ABTC, and RICO), which puts all five tickers under the 24-hour no-rebuy bar; the bar refused 5 re-entries today, four of them RICO. The kill-switches stayed disabled by owner order and only logged: the final run printed "FULL-STOP level reached (-99.2%) — gate DISABLED, continuing", "WEEKLY kill-switch DISABLED (owner order): -96.0%", and "DAILY kill-switch DISABLED (owner order): -92.1%". SAFE (Donchian-20 breakout, 1.0% risk) never fired, and MEDIUM bought nothing new — INJ printed the top MEDIUM score in most runs (57.7–66.0) but broke no Donchian-20 high, so no MEDIUM order was placed; the run's only MEDIUM position, INJUSD, closed on its stop for −$0.05. BESTBUYS scores across the day ran Bitcoin 57.5–68.8, Ethereum 55.6–68.8, Solana 55.9–66.5; LINK printed the day's highest MEDIUM score, 65.2, at 23:10 CST on November 4. No guardrail-6 write-downs happened.
Every close — losers first, then the 2 wins
Twelve of the fourteen closes lost money, including five HIGH-STOPs — three of them worse than −96%. Five closes were positions bought on November 4 and listed as still open in yesterday's diary: 5STAR, ABTC, VI, and FOTF (all bought 18:10 CST, November 4) and INJUSD (bought 16:27 CST, November 4). Every other close below was bought earlier today, and its entry is in the buys table.
| Closed (CT) | Token / tier | Entry → Exit | Rule fired | Return | P&L / fee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:10 Nov 4 | VI · HIGH | 0.00034340 (Nov 4) → 0.000004 | HIGH-STOP | −98.9% | −$12.37 / $0.00 |
| 17:27 | COGE · HIGH | 0.00010670 → 0.000002 | HIGH-STOP | −97.9% | −$12.24 / $0.00 |
| 17:27 | 5STAR · HIGH | 0.00007774 → 0.000003 | HIGH-STOP | −96.2% | −$12.03 / $0.00 |
| 04:10 | ABTC · HIGH | 0.00013310 (Nov 4) → 0.000050 | HIGH-STOP | −62.8% | −$7.89 / $0.05 |
| 05:50 | RICO · HIGH | 0.00039680 → 0.000163 | HIGH-STOP | −59.0% | −$7.42 / $0.05 |
| 07:28 | GHOST · HIGH | 0.00026550 → 0.000183 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −31.2% | −$3.99 / $0.09 |
| 23:10 Nov 4 | 5STAR · HIGH | 0.00011720 (Nov 4) → 0.000086 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −27.0% | −$3.47 / $0.09 |
| 14:11 | GHOST · HIGH | 0.00022140 → 0.000181 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −18.2% | −$2.37 / $0.10 |
| 09:11 | TOPLESS · HIGH | 0.00010470 → 0.000100 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −5.0% | −$0.74 / $0.12 |
| 10:50 | MINTED · HIGH | 0.00016250 → 0.000159 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −2.4% | −$0.42 / $0.12 |
| 10:50 | Democat · HIGH | 0.00048460 → 0.000480 | TRAIL-EXIT (peak +36.7%) | −1.0% | −$0.25 / $0.12 |
| 10:50 | INJUSD · MEDIUM | 7.9360 (Nov 4) → 7.919000 | STOP | −0.2% | −$0.05 / $0.04 |
| The 2 wins | |||||
| 07:28 | GAVELDROP · HIGH | 0.00050370 → 0.000699 | TRAIL-EXIT (peak +115.2%) | +38.8% | +$4.68 / $0.17 |
| 23:10 Nov 4 | FOTF · HIGH | 0.00800800 (Nov 4) → 0.008625 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | +7.7% | +$0.83 / $0.13 |
Losers subtotal: −$63.24. Winners subtotal: +$5.51. Sum of all 14 SELL lines: −$57.73. Without GAVELDROP's trail-exit, the day's other thirteen closes sum to −$62.41.
Every buy — the data point behind each trade
Points (pts), liquidity, and the "why" below are copied from the BUY line the bot wrote at decision time — not from a later scan. All 9 HIGH buys were $12.50, inside the $20,000–$65,000 liquidity band. Seven were RawScan signals and two were brand-new pairs (new-lane). "DANGER-BAND" and "BAND-65-70" style tags are the bot's own labels on the BUY line. The news lane stayed parked and bought nothing. Points ran 30–50.
| Bought (CT) | Token / tier | Size · Entry · pts · liquidity | Data point at decision time (bot's "why") | Outcome by 17:27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:10 Nov 4 | GAVELDROP · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00050370 · 45 pts · $60,408 | RawScan. Volume 30× liquidity — heavy trading; buyers 78% of last-hour trades; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 75–80. | Closed 07:28, +$4.68 |
| 04:10 | RICO · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00039680 · 37 pts · $55,478 | RawScan. Volume 9× liquidity — heavy trading; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 65–70. | Closed 05:50, −$7.42 |
| 05:50 | GHOST · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00026550 · 35 pts · $43,975 | RawScan. Volume 6× liquidity — heavy trading; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 65–70. | Closed 07:28, −$3.99 |
| 07:28 | Democat · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00048460 · 48 pts · $59,388 | RawScan. Volume 35× liquidity — heavy trading; buyers 69% of last-hour trades; liquidity shrinking (−29%) — fragile. DANGER-BAND, band 75–80. | Closed 10:50, −$0.25 |
| 07:28 | TOPLESS · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00010470 · 46 pts · $26,524 | New-lane. Brand-new pair (50m old); volume 8× liquidity — heavy trading; buyers 62% of last-hour trades. DANGER-BAND, NEW-LANE. | Closed 09:11, −$0.74 |
| 09:11 | MINTED · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00016250 · 34 pts · $33,830 | RawScan. Volume 10× liquidity — heavy trading; buyers 64% of last-hour trades; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 65–70. | Closed 10:50, −$0.42 |
| 10:50 | GHOST · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00022140 · 34 pts · $38,672 | RawScan. Volume 9× liquidity — heavy trading; liquidity growing (+10% since last feed); paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 65–70. | Closed 14:11, −$2.37 |
| 10:50 | 5STAR · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00007774 · 30 pts · $21,945 | RawScan. Volume 12× liquidity — heavy trading; paid boost attention. Band 60–65. | Closed 17:27, −$12.03 |
| 14:11 | COGE · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00010670 · 50 pts · $28,750 | New-lane. Brand-new pair (32m old); volume 2.2× liquidity; buyers 76% of last-hour trades. DANGER-BAND, NEW-LANE. | Closed 17:27, −$12.24 |
What did not trade also matters, and today the guardrails are visible in the refusals: 58 SKIP lines in the day's log — 37 for liquidity outside the $20,000–$65,000 band, 15 for the Solana points bar (GTA six times, GAVELDROP three, plus Ronaldinu, Democat, CR, titcoin, BTC, and Edmond), 5 for the 24-hour no-rebuy rule (RICO four times, CHILLCATS once), and 1 for velocity (TOLLY at 35 — "too late, top-chasing"). No news-lane buys happened all day — the lane is parked.
Still open — nothing
Zero positions open. Cash is $5.12, and that cannot fund another buy — even a halved $6.25 HIGH buy needs $6.56 with its fee. The bot idles until a close frees money, and there is nothing open to close. The $5.12 paper value is all cash.
What today actually proved
- Five HIGH-STOPs in one day sum to −$51.95 — nearly the whole day's loss. VI −98.9%, COGE −97.9%, 5STAR −96.2%, ABTC −62.8%, and RICO −59.0% all gapped past the −50% stop between checks roughly 100 minutes apart; the stop never gets its chance when a token falls that far in one interval. Day Fourteen had six stops; today had five, and three of them were worse than −96%.
- 5STAR is the cruellest line in the log. Bought at 10:50 on 30 points and $21,945 liquidity, it peaked at +130.9% by 14:11 — the bot armed the trail with a floor at +78.5% — and still closed at −96.2% on a HIGH-STOP at 17:27 for −$12.03. A +131% peak that becomes a near-total wipeout means the token fell straight through the trail floor between two checks. Yesterday's diary made the same point about AMD's +142% peak ending at −15.9%; today 5STAR proves the peak itself is not the win, and the trail only helps when the fall is slow enough to catch.
- GAVELDROP is the day's only real win — and the trail did catch this one. Bought at 23:10 on November 4, it ran to a +115.2% peak and trailed out at +38.8% for +$4.68, the day's largest win and 85% of all winners' dollars. Democat's trail-exit, by contrast, lost −1.0% off a +36.7% peak. Two trail-exits, two peaks, opposite endings — the difference was the speed of the fall, not the height of the peak.
- The new-pair lane went 0-for-2. TOPLESS (50 minutes old) lost −5.0% and COGE (32 minutes old) lost −97.9% — net −$12.98 across the two closed new-pair buys. COGE had the day's highest points (50) and 76% buyers; it still went to ~zero in three hours. Most new tokens go to zero, and the highest score of the day did not save this one.
- The book is effectively empty. $5.12, zero open positions, eight straight losses, and the bot cannot afford its next buy. Run 4 is −99.2% from its reset baseline and −99.5% from the original $1,000. Lifetime: 65 wins against 157 losses, $74.64 in fees. Tomorrow's diary will report whatever the bot does next with the same numbers, win or lose — including nothing, if the bot sits idle.
PAPER TRADING — simulated only. Hypothetical performance. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Most new tokens go to zero. Tomorrow's diary will report whatever the bot does next with the same numbers, win or lose.
Every trade, every fee, every stop — on the public Nova Trader dashboard.
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