Run 4, Day Fourteen: 21 Closes, 10 Wins, −$22.97 — OAK's +133% Time-Stop Led the Wins; SPHERE Wiped Out −97.8%

Day fourteen of Run 4 is the sixth full day under the v6 guardrails Paul approved on October 30 ("apply all 7"). This diary covers every bot run from 22:10 CST on November 3 — the first run after yesterday's diary closed at 17:10 CST — through the last run before publication at 18:10 CST on November 4. Eight runs in all; no bot run printed after the 18:10 CST run before this diary was written at 21:30 CST, so whatever the next run does belongs to Day Fifteen. The bot bought 22 positions — 21 HIGH at $12.50 and its first MEDIUM order of the run — and closed 21: 10 wins, 11 losses. Closed P&L: −$22.97. All numbers below are straight from trades.log and paper_portfolio.json. Nothing here is real money.

Every close — losers first, then the 10 wins

Eleven of the twenty-one closes lost money, including six HIGH-STOPs — five of them worse than −63%. Four closes were positions bought on November 3 and listed as still open in yesterday's diary: SPHERE, AMERICA, and 5STAR (all bought 17:10 CST, November 3) and OAK (bought 08:50 CST, November 3). Every other close below was bought earlier today, and its entry is in the buys table.

Losers subtotal: −$59.84. Winners subtotal: +$36.87. Sum of all 21 SELL lines: −$22.97. Without OAK's time-stop, the day's other twenty closes sum to −$39.37.

Every buy — the data point behind each trade

Points (pts), liquidity, and the "why" below are copied from the BUY line the bot wrote at decision time — not from a later scan. All 21 HIGH buys were $12.50, inside the $20,000–$65,000 liquidity band. Sixteen were RawScan signals, four were brand-new pairs (new-lane), and one was an ignition signal (AMD). "DANGER-BAND" and "BAND-65-70" style tags are the bot's own labels on the BUY line. The news lane stayed parked and bought nothing. Points ran 23–48.

What did not trade also matters, and today the guardrails are visible in the refusals: 272 SKIP lines in the day's log — 233 for liquidity outside the $20,000–$65,000 band (182 of them at $0), 19 for the Solana points bar (GTA at 67 and 69 points, DAVID at 57, Eloise at 54, and others), 9 for the 24-hour no-rebuy rule (RICO six times, CHILLCATS twice, ANONVOYAGE once), 7 because band 65–70 was full, 2 for the 3–12h dead zone (DENIM at 6.6h, PREFIRE at 8.6h), 1 for the top-zone score rule (HIGH/ER at 94), and 1 for velocity (Sasha at 35 — "too late, top-chasing"). No news-lane buys happened all day — the lane is parked.

Still open — five positions

Four HIGH positions bought for $12.50 each on the final run, plus the MEDIUM INJUSD position. The $65.53 paper value is the bot's STATUS mark: $3.05 cash plus these positions at their latest marks, $1.83 above their combined cost. Cash covers zero more $12.50 buys — the next buy has to be funded by a close.

What today actually proved

• Six HIGH-STOPs in one day — double Day Thirteen's three. SPHERE −97.8%, PAIRITY −80.1%, CHILLCATS −78.5%, george −70.7%, LMNI −63.5%, and ANONVOYAGE −50.5% sum to −$55.34: more than the whole day's net loss twice over. Every one of them gapped past the −50% stop between checks roughly 100 minutes apart; the stop never gets its chance when a token falls that far in one interval. Day Thirteen had three stops; today doubled it.
• The new-pair lane went 1-for-3 on closes, and the one win was the smallest. PAIRITY (39 minutes old) lost −80.1%, george (56m) lost −70.7%, and FIX (55m) won +26.5% — net −$15.76 across the three closed new-pair buys. ABTC (52m) is still open and unjudged. The lane's closed record keeps pointing the same way: most new tokens go to zero, and the renounced mint on PAIRITY did not save it.
• AMD is the cruellest line in the log. Bought on an ignition signal at 09:50, it peaked at +142.0% — the highest peak of the day — and still closed at −15.9% on a trailing exit at 16:27. A +142% peak that becomes a loss means the peak lived and died between two checks, and the trail only caught the fall. Yesterday's diary made the same point about OAK's +103.4% peak; today AMD proves the peak itself is not the win.
• OAK's time-stop is the day's whole positive story, again. The November 3 position, marked +114.9% in yesterday's diary, ran to +133.5% and was closed by the 24-hour time-stop for +$16.40 — the largest single win of the day and nearly half of all winners' dollars. Without it, the day is −$39.37 instead of −$22.97. One token, held a full day, did what twenty other closes could not.
• 5STAR is becoming the bot's metronome — six buys, five closes, +$5.59 net. Bought at 22:11, 06:28, 08:11, 09:50, 13:11, and 18:10, it closed +$0.66, +$3.19, −$0.41, −$1.35, and +$3.50 across the day, with the sixth buy still open. The rebuys are legal — every prior close was a 1-hour exit, not a stop, so the 24-hour no-rebuy bar never applied — but the token supplied six of the day's 22 buys and barely moved the total.
• The run is now −89.6% from its reset baseline, and cash is effectively gone. $3.05 in cash cannot fund another $12.50 buy; from here the bot only trades on money freed by closes. Lifetime: 63 wins against 145 losses, $72.37 in fees. Tomorrow's diary will report whatever the bot does next with the same numbers, win or lose.

PAPER TRADING — simulated only. Hypothetical performance. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Most new tokens go to zero. Tomorrow's diary will report whatever the bot does next with the same numbers, win or lose.