Run 4, Day Thirteen: 21 Closes, 8 Wins, −$32.24 — All Four New-Pair Buys Lost; OAK's Trail-Exit Led the Wins

Day thirteen of Run 4 is the fifth full day under the v6 guardrails Paul approved on October 30 ("apply all 7"). This diary covers every bot run from 02:11 CST — the first run after yesterday's diary closed at 21:11 CST on November 2 — through the last run before publication at 17:10 CST. Seven runs in all; no bot run printed after the 17:10 CST run before this diary was written at 21:30 CST, so whatever the next run does belongs to Day Fourteen. The bot bought 23 positions, all HIGH tier at $12.50, and closed 21: 8 wins, 13 losses. Closed P&L: −$32.24. All numbers below are straight from trades.log and paper_portfolio.json. Nothing here is real money.

Every close — losers first, then the 8 wins

Thirteen of the twenty-one closes lost money, including two HIGH-STOP wipeouts worse than −60%. Two closes were positions bought on November 2 and listed as still open in yesterday's diary: OAK (bought 16:11 CST, November 2) and DIGS (bought on Day Twelve's final run, 21:11 CST, November 2). Every other close below was bought earlier today, and its entry is in the buys table. The wins table includes one close that reads +$0.00 in the log (AMERICA, 07:10 CST): the bot's counters count it as a win, and its logged P&L rounds to zero after fees.

Losers subtotal: −$45.74. Winners subtotal: +$13.50 (including AMERICA's +$0.00 as printed). Sum of all 21 SELL lines: −$32.24. Without OAK's trailing exit, the day's other twenty closes sum to −$39.28.

Every buy — the data point behind each trade

Points (pts), liquidity, and the "why" below are copied from the BUY line the bot wrote at decision time — not from a later scan. All 23 buys were HIGH tier at $12.50, inside the $20,000–$65,000 liquidity band. Nineteen were RawScan signals; four were brand-new pairs (ignition / new-lane): AI, HI, FUN, and HUGO. "DANGER-BAND" and "BAND-65-70" style tags are the bot's own labels on the BUY line. The news lane stayed parked and bought nothing. Points ran 19–48.

What did not trade also matters, and today the guardrails are visible in the refusals: 260 SKIP lines in the day's log — 236 for liquidity outside the $20,000–$65,000 band (189 of them at $0), 19 for the Solana points bar, 2 because a band was full ("band 60-65 full" refused AMERICA once; "band 65-70 full" refused TrumpWars once), 2 for velocity (Paper, 48, and elunmusk, 40 — "too late, top-chasing"), and 1 because a new-lane token scored under the floor (SARAH, 38 points, under 40). The points bar refused AMD (52 and 57 points across runs), ANONVOYAGE, LUCIA, KOTANOSUKE, WASTED, RICO, and Dacity, among others. No skip today cited the 24-hour no-rebuy rule or the 3–12h dead zone. No news-lane buys happened all day — the lane is parked.

Still open — four positions

All four positions are HIGH tier, bought for $12.50 each. The $104.56 paper value is the bot's STATUS mark: cash plus these positions at their latest marks. The three bought on the final run are counted at cost in the portfolio snapshot — they have no later mark. OAK's mark is real in the log and unrealized in every sense that matters.

What today actually proved

• Every brand-new-pair buy lost — all four, −$22.72 of the day's −$32.24. AI (29 minutes old), HI (44m), FUN (52m), and HUGO (14m) were bought on ignition/new-lane signals with volume multiples of 3.3×–18× and, in two cases, a renounced mint. All four closed within about two hours: −31.8%, −63.2%, −9.9%, and −74.7%. The new-pair lane supplied 4 of 23 buys and 70% of the day's closed loss. The RawScan buys, by contrast, summed to −$9.52 across 17 closes.
• The two HIGH-STOP wipeouts are the same gap pattern as before. HI fell −63.2% and HUGO −74.7% between checks roughly 100 minutes apart; the −50% stop never gets its chance when a token gaps that far in one interval. Three stops fired today after none yesterday — the gap risk did not go away, it just skipped a day.
• RICO lost three round trips in a row, each worse in dollars than the last. −$3.41, then −$1.27, then −$6.99 on the stop — $11.67 in total. The bot keeps re-buying the same tokens because the same RawScan signals keep firing, and the 24-hour no-rebuy bar does not apply to 1-hour exits: only the third RICO close was a stop, so only now is RICO barred for 24 hours. Each round trip is reported separately above, as it happened.
• OAK is the day's whole positive story, twice over. The November 2 position trailed out at +57.9% (peak +103.4%) for +$7.04, the day's largest win. Today's 08:50 OAK buy is marked +114.9% at the final check and still open — but yesterday's diary made the same point about a +103.4% mark on this same token, and an OAK buy hours earlier died at −18.2% in under two hours. A mark can become a loss in one interval, exactly as the −74.7% close did in the other direction.
• The trailing exit gave back most of its peak both times it fired. ARNOLD peaked at +49.8% and closed at +7.8%; OAK peaked at +103.4% and closed at +57.9%. The trail locks in part of a run and surrenders the rest — today that still beat every flat 1-hour exit except TrumpWars' +19.3%.
• The run is still −83.4% from its reset baseline, and cash is thin. $39.39 in cash covers about three more $12.50 buys before a close has to fund the next one. Lifetime: 53 wins against 134 losses, $67.24 in fees. Tomorrow's diary will report whatever the bot does next with the same numbers, win or lose.

PAPER TRADING — simulated only. Hypothetical performance. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Most new tokens go to zero. Tomorrow's diary will report whatever the bot does next with the same numbers, win or lose.