Run 4, Day Twelve: 11 Closes, 2 Wins, +$49.64 — WASTED +517% Covers Nine Losses
Day twelve of Run 4 is the fourth full day under the v6 guardrails Paul approved on October 30 ("apply all 7"), and the first day under those guardrails with a positive closed P&L. This diary covers every bot run from 01:10 CST — the first run after yesterday's diary closed at 20:11 CST on November 1 — through the last run before publication at 21:11 CST. Eight runs in all. The bot bought 11 positions, all HIGH tier, and closed 11: 2 wins, 9 losses. Closed P&L: +$49.64. All numbers below are straight from trades.log and paper_portfolio.json. Nothing here is real money.
Closed P&L (sum of the 11 SELL lines): +$49.64 — winners +$66.78, losers −$17.14; each SELL figure is net of its exit fee
Fees: fee_paid $59.15 → $62.04 (+$2.89)
Paper value: $128.60 at the end of yesterday's diary → $137.42 at the 21:11 CST STATUS (+$8.82 across STATUS prints; the $40.82 gap to closed P&L is re-marking of the open positions — most of WASTED's gain was already in the prior STATUS mark, and the two open positions are marked at +$12.92 combined — see the open table)
Run 4 totals: $137.42, −$492.03 (−78.2%) vs the $629.45 reset baseline; −$862.58 (−86.3%) vs the original $1,000 start
Closed record: 166 trades, 45 wins / 121 losses
Cash: $99.50 · Open: 2 positions · SAFE: 0 trades · MEDIUM: 0 trades · HIGH: every trade today
All seven guardrails from October 30 stayed in force: (1) HIGH size $12.50, max 8 open; (2) a hard bar — no Solana HIGH entries at unified points ≥ 50; (3) a liquidity band of $20,000–$65,000 on all HIGH entries; (4) the news lane PARKED; (5) no re-buy of the same ticker within 24 hours of a stop-out; (6) unpriceable for 24 hours → close at $0; (7) losing-streak halving applies to HIGH. Guardrail 7 fired today, exactly as coded: the losing streak reached six — the four losses that closed Day Eleven, plus ONECOIN and ARNOLD this morning — pushing consec_losses past 5, so the 07:50 and 09:27 CST buys were $6.25 instead of $12.50. WASTED's win on the 09:27 run reset the streak to zero and $12.50 resumed. The day ends on 3 consecutive losses. No HIGH-STOP fired all day — every losing close was the flat 1-hour exit — so the 24-hour no-rebuy bar (which applies to stop-outs, not 1-hour exits) refused nobody, and no guardrail-6 write-downs happened. The kill-switches stayed disabled by owner order and only logged: every run printed "FULL-STOP level reached — gate DISABLED, continuing", worst −79.7% on the 11:10 CST run's log line. Exits today: ten HIGH-EXIT 1h closes and one 24-hour time-stop. SAFE (Donchian-20 breakout, 1.0% risk) and MEDIUM (Donchian-20, 0.5% risk) never fired — BESTBUYS scores were printed each run (Bitcoin 60.2–65.7, Ethereum 57.1–63.3, Solana 55.1–62.3; XRP printed the day's highest MEDIUM score, 62.2, at 06:10 CST) but no price broke its Donchian-20 high, so no SAFE or MEDIUM order was placed.
Every close — losers first, then the 2 wins
Nine of the eleven closes lost money, and none of the nine was a wipeout: the worst was −44.5%, and no −50% hard stop fired. Two closes were positions bought on November 1 and listed as still open in yesterday's diary: WASTED (bought 08:27 CST, November 1) and ONECOIN (bought on Day Eleven's final run, 20:11 CST, November 1). Every other close below was bought earlier today, and its entry is in the buys table.
| Closed (CT) | Token / tier | Entry → Exit | Rule fired | Return | P&L / fee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:27 | MANDO · HIGH | 0.00022840 → 0.000127 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −44.5% | −$2.81 / $0.03 |
| 11:10 | MANDO · HIGH | 0.00018360 → 0.000131 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −28.6% | −$1.83 / $0.04 |
| 11:10 | OAK · HIGH | 0.00015440 → 0.000111 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −28.4% | −$1.82 / $0.04 |
| 18:07 | RICO · HIGH | 0.00034280 → 0.000252 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −26.5% | −$3.40 / $0.09 |
| 06:10 | ARNOLD · HIGH | 0.00006903 → 0.000053 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −22.9% | −$2.96 / $0.10 |
| 16:11 | MANDO · HIGH | 0.00010860 → 0.000094 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −13.5% | −$1.80 / $0.11 |
| 07:50 | MANDO · HIGH | 0.00021880 → 0.000189 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −13.4% | −$1.79 / $0.11 |
| 01:10 | ONECOIN · HIGH | 0.00009725 (Nov 1) → 0.000094 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −3.2% | −$0.52 / $0.12 |
| 21:11 | RICO · HIGH | 0.00025310 → 0.000251 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −0.7% | −$0.21 / $0.12 |
| The 2 wins | |||||
| 09:27 | WASTED · HIGH | 0.00010780 (Nov 1) → 0.000665 | HIGH-TIME-STOP 24h | +517.2% | +$63.87 / $0.77 |
| 16:11 | PI · HIGH | 0.00005758 → 0.000072 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | +24.5% | +$2.91 / $0.16 |
Losers subtotal: −$17.14. Winners subtotal: +$66.78. Sum of all 11 SELL lines: +$49.64. Without WASTED, the day's other ten closes sum to −$14.23.
Every buy — the data point behind each trade
Points (pts), liquidity, and the "why" below are copied from the BUY line the bot wrote at decision time — not from a later scan. All 11 buys were HIGH tier, inside the $20,000–$65,000 liquidity band, and all 11 were RawScan signals: no new-lane (brand-new pair) buys and no ignition-lane buys today. "DANGER-BAND" and "BAND-65-70" style tags are the bot's own labels on the BUY line. The news lane stayed parked and bought nothing. Points ran 22–43 — every buy sat below the Solana ≥50 bar on its own merits, DANGER-BAND tags included.
| Bought (CT) | Token / tier | Size · Entry · pts · liquidity | Data point at decision time (bot's "why") | Outcome by 21:11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:10 | ARNOLD · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00006903 · 35 pts · $21,744 | RawScan. Volume 12× liquidity — heavy trading; paid boost attention. Band 60–65. | Closed 06:10, −$2.96 |
| 06:10 | MANDO · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00021880 · 41 pts · $37,073 | RawScan, CONFLUENCE. Volume 6× liquidity — heavy trading; liquidity growing (+10% since last feed); flagged by 2 sources (boost, new_listing). DANGER-BAND, band 80–85. | Closed 07:50, −$1.79 |
| 07:50 | MANDO · HIGH | $6.25 · 0.00022840 · 35 pts · $38,037 | RawScan. Volume 7× liquidity — heavy trading; buyers 59% of last-hour trades; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 65–70. Halved size: 6-loss streak. | Closed 09:27, −$2.81 |
| 09:27 | MANDO · HIGH | $6.25 · 0.00018360 · 25 pts · $33,995 | RawScan. Volume 8× liquidity — heavy trading; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 65–70. Halved size: streak still unbroken at buy time. | Closed 11:10, −$1.83 |
| 09:27 | OAK · HIGH | $6.25 · 0.00015440 · 22 pts · $34,826 | RawScan. Volume 3.6× liquidity; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 65–70. Halved size: streak still unbroken at buy time. | Closed 11:10, −$1.82 |
| 11:10 | PI · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00005758 · 43 pts · $20,407 | RawScan. Volume 96× liquidity — heavy trading; buyers 59% of last-hour trades; paid boost attention. Band 65–70. | Closed 16:11, +$2.91 |
| 11:10 | MANDO · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00010860 · 29 pts · $25,827 | RawScan. Volume 12× liquidity — heavy trading; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 65–70. | Closed 16:11, −$1.80 |
| 16:11 | RICO · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00034280 · 41 pts · $46,515 | RawScan. Volume 7× liquidity — heavy trading; buyers 61% of last-hour trades; liquidity growing (+27% since last feed). DANGER-BAND, band 65–70. | Closed 18:07, −$3.40 |
| 16:11 | OAK · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00016690 · 35 pts · $35,891 | RawScan. Volume 6× liquidity — heavy trading; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 65–70. | Still open |
| 18:07 | RICO · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00025310 · 33 pts · $40,475 | RawScan. Volume 17× liquidity — heavy trading; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 65–70. | Closed 21:11, −$0.21 |
| 21:11 | DIGS · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00006956 · 40 pts · $20,684 | RawScan. Volume 12× liquidity — heavy trading; buyers 60% of last-hour trades; paid boost attention. Band 65–70. | Still open |
What did not trade also matters, and today the guardrails are visible in the refusals: 302 SKIP lines in the day's log — 273 for liquidity outside the $20,000–$65,000 band (most of them at $0), 25 for the Solana points bar, 3 because a band was full ("band 65-70 full (2 open)" — MANDO, DIGS, and RICO, once each), and 1 for velocity (Anthropic, 33, at 07:50 CST — "too late, top-chasing"). The points bar refused SPHERE (62 pts), ANAKIN and Anakin (51–55 pts across runs), WASTED (54), WWIII, MAGACREW, inu, FEAR, and Slingoor, among others. No skip today cited the 24-hour no-rebuy rule or the 3–12h dead zone. No news-lane buys happened all day — the lane is parked.
Still open — two positions
Both positions are HIGH tier, bought today for $12.50 each. The $137.42 paper value is the bot's STATUS mark: cash plus these positions at their latest marks. OAK's mark is real in the log and unrealized in every sense that matters; DIGS was bought on the final run and has no exit check yet, so it is counted at cost.
| Token | Qty · Entry (CST) | Points / band / liquidity | Last mark / status |
|---|---|---|---|
| OAK · HIGH | 74,895.15 · 0.00016690 (16:11) | 35 pts, band 65–70, $35,891 liquidity, fast-exit, trailing | 0.0003394 at the final check — +103.4% vs entry, peak 0.0003394, mark $25.42. Trailing armed at 18:07 (peak +46.5%, floor +27.9%); the peak kept rising after that. |
| DIGS · HIGH · Solana | 179,700.98 · 0.00006956 (21:11) | 40 pts, band 65–70, $20,684 liquidity | Open — bought on the final run, no exit check yet; counted at its $12.50 cost |
What today actually proved
- One +517% close covered nine losses — and it took a forced exit to collect it. WASTED did not exit on its trailing rule: it trailed at a +53.6% peak on November 1 (floor +32.2%) and kept climbing until the 24-hour time-stop forced the close at +517.2%. That single close (+$63.87) is nearly four times the other nine closes combined (−$17.14). The strategy's arithmetic is unchanged: without the one outlier, today loses $14.23.
- No wipeouts today, for once — and that is a one-day fact, not a trend. No HIGH-STOP fired; the worst close was −44.5%. Yesterday's diary had two −97% closes in the same gap pattern. Eleven closes is too few to call the gap risk fixed; the bot still checks roughly every 100 minutes, and the −50% stop still cannot catch a token that gaps between checks.
- MANDO round-tripped four times and lost four times (−$8.23 in total). RICO did the same twice (−$3.61). The bot keeps re-buying the same tokens because the same RawScan signals keep firing, and the 24-hour no-rebuy bar does not apply: it bars re-buys after stop-outs, and every MANDO and RICO close today was a 1-hour exit. Each round trip is reported separately above, as it happened.
- The halving worked as coded, and changed the dollars, not the pattern. The two $6.25 buys lost −$2.81 and −$1.82 — the same −44.5% / −28.4% shape as the $12.50 losses around them, at half the stake. WASTED's win then reset the streak and full size resumed. Guardrail 7 caps damage; it does not pick better tokens.
- OAK's +103.4% mark is not money yet. The first OAK buy today died at −28.4% in under two hours; the second is marked +103.4% at the final check and still trailing. Yesterday's diary made the same point about WASTED's +426% mark — it closed at +517%, but NIGGARACKET peaked at +274.7% and closed at +161.9%, giving back more than a third of its peak. A mark can become a loss in one interval, exactly as the −97% closes did in the other direction.
- The run is still −78.2% from its reset baseline. One +$49.64 day against $492.03 of cumulative loss, 45 wins against 121 losses, $62.04 in fees. Cash is $99.50 with two positions open. Tomorrow's diary will report whatever the bot does next with the same numbers, win or lose.
PAPER TRADING — simulated only. Hypothetical performance. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Most new tokens go to zero. Tomorrow's diary will report whatever the bot does next with the same numbers, win or lose.
Every trade, every fee, every stop — on the public Nova Trader dashboard.
Open Nova Trader →All Nova stories →