Run 4, Day Eleven: 14 Closes, 4 Wins, −$21.06 — One +162% Winner, Two −97% Wipeouts
Day eleven of Run 4 is the third full day under the v6 guardrails Paul approved on October 30 ("apply all 7"). This diary covers every bot run from 01:10 CDT — the first run after yesterday's diary closed at 20:11 CDT on October 31 — through the last run before publication at 20:11 CST. Eight runs in all; clocks fell back overnight, so the day spans CDT and CST. The bot bought 11 positions, all HIGH tier, all $12.50 under v6, and closed 14: 4 wins, 10 losses. Closed P&L: −$21.06. All numbers below are straight from trades.log and paper_portfolio.json. Nothing here is real money.
Closed P&L (sum of the 14 SELL lines): −$21.06 — winners +$25.86, losers −$46.92; each SELL figure is net of its exit fee
Fees: fee_paid $56.22 → $59.15 (+$2.93)
Paper value: $114.15 at the end of yesterday's diary → $128.60 at the 20:11 CST STATUS (+$14.45 across STATUS prints; the gap to closed P&L is re-marking of the open positions — see the open table)
Run 4 totals: $128.60, −$500.85 (−79.6%) vs the $629.45 reset baseline; −$871.40 (−87.1%) vs the original $1,000 start
Closed record: 155 trades, 43 wins / 112 losses
Cash: $51.05 · Open: 2 positions · SAFE: 0 trades · MEDIUM: 0 trades · HIGH: every trade today
All seven guardrails from October 30 stayed in force: (1) HIGH size $12.50, max 8 open; (2) a hard bar — no Solana HIGH entries at unified points ≥ 50; (3) a liquidity band of $20,000–$65,000 on all HIGH entries; (4) the news lane PARKED; (5) no re-buy of the same ticker within 24 hours of a stop-out; (6) unpriceable for 24 hours → close at $0; (7) losing-streak halving applies to HIGH ($6.25 after 5+ straight losses). No $6.25 buys happened today — every buy was $12.50, and the run ended on 4 consecutive losses, one short of the halving trigger. No guardrail-6 write-downs happened today either. The kill-switches stayed disabled by owner order and only logged: every run printed "FULL-STOP level reached — gate DISABLED, continuing" (down to −79.4% at the final run), with the daily switch printing −14.2% at the 15:10 CST run. Exits: −50% hard stop (HIGH-STOP), trailing exit once a peak gain reaches +30%, a flat 1-hour exit (HIGH-EXIT 1h), and the 24-hour time-stop. SAFE (Donchian-20 breakout, 1.0% risk) and MEDIUM (Donchian-20, 0.5% risk) never fired — BESTBUYS scores were printed each run (Bitcoin 62.4–70.9, Ethereum 56.7–63.6, Solana 54.4–64.2; XRP printed the day's highest MEDIUM score, 62.9, on the final run, and NEAR reached 61.4 at 05:10 CST) but no price broke its Donchian-20 high, so no SAFE or MEDIUM order was placed.
Every close — losers first, then the 4 wins
Ten of the fourteen closes lost money. Five of the fourteen were positions bought on October 31 and listed as still open in yesterday's diary: SIS, ANSEM, BNB, and NNN, closed on the 01:10 CDT run, and NIGGARACKET, closed at 08:27 CST. Their entries are shown from the October 31 runs. Every other close below was bought earlier today, and its entry is in the buys table. The two worst closes are the same gap pattern as every day this run: tokens priced at $0.000003 by the next check, a −97% fall the −50% stop never gets a chance to catch, because the bot checks roughly every 100 minutes and the token gaps between checks.
| Closed (CT) | Token / tier | Entry → Exit | Rule fired | Return | P&L / fee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:10 CDT | NNN · HIGH | 0.00013730 (Oct 31) → 0.000003 | HIGH-STOP | −97.7% | −$12.22 / $0.00 |
| 20:11 CST | AAPLCAT · HIGH | 0.00008533 → 0.000003 | HIGH-STOP | −96.9% | −$12.12 / $0.00 |
| 01:10 CDT | BNB · HIGH | 0.00033380 (Oct 31) → 0.000105 | HIGH-STOP | −68.7% | −$8.62 / $0.04 |
| 10:10 CST | SIS · HIGH | 0.00020800 → 0.000090 | HIGH-STOP | −56.9% | −$7.16 / $0.05 |
| 05:10 CST | Jason · HIGH | 0.00012360 → 0.000106 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −14.5% | −$1.92 / $0.11 |
| 20:11 CST | ONECOIN · HIGH | 0.00010710 → 0.000092 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −14.4% | −$1.91 / $0.11 |
| 08:27 CST | WASTED · HIGH | 0.00013700 → 0.000124 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −9.3% | −$1.27 / $0.11 |
| 05:10 CST | ANSEM · HIGH | 0.00028420 → 0.000272 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −4.2% | −$0.65 / $0.12 |
| 05:10 CST | NETWORK · HIGH | 0.00027350 → 0.000262 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −4.2% | −$0.64 / $0.12 |
| 06:50 CST | ROBIN · HIGH | 0.00005690 → 0.000056 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | −2.3% | −$0.41 / $0.12 |
| The 4 wins | |||||
| 08:27 CST | NIGGARACKET · HIGH | 0.00007312 (Oct 31) → 0.000191 | TRAIL-EXIT (peak +274.7%) | +161.9% | +$19.91 / $0.33 |
| 01:10 CDT | ANSEM · HIGH | 0.00025850 (Oct 31) → 0.000318 | TRAIL-EXIT (peak +65.3%) | +23.2% | +$2.74 / $0.15 |
| 01:10 CDT | SIS · HIGH | 0.00038170 (Oct 31) → 0.000447 | TRAIL-EXIT (peak +43.3%) | +17.0% | +$1.98 / $0.15 |
| 06:50 CST | Jason · HIGH | 0.00009656 → 0.000107 | HIGH-EXIT 1h | +10.9% | +$1.23 / $0.14 |
Losers subtotal: −$46.92. Winners subtotal: +$25.86. Sum of all 14 SELL lines: −$21.06.
Every buy — the data point behind each trade
Points (pts), liquidity, and the "why" below are copied from the BUY line the bot wrote at decision time — not from a later scan. All 11 buys were $12.50, HIGH tier, inside the $20,000–$65,000 liquidity band, and all 11 were RawScan signals: no new-lane (brand-new pair) buys and no ignition-lane buys today. "DANGER-BAND" and "BAND-65-70" style tags are the bot's own labels on the BUY line. The news lane stayed parked and bought nothing.
| Bought (CT) | Token / tier | Size · Entry · pts · liquidity | Data point at decision time (bot's "why") | Outcome by 20:11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:10 CDT | ANSEM · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00028420 · 39 pts · $46,337 | RawScan. Volume 38× liquidity — heavy trading; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 65–70. | Closed 05:10, −$0.65 |
| 01:10 CDT | NETWORK · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00027350 · 33 pts · $44,327 | RawScan. Volume 4.0× liquidity; buyers 60% of last-hour trades; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 60–65. | Closed 05:10, −$0.64 |
| 01:10 CDT | Jason · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00012360 · 28 pts · $29,762 | RawScan. Volume 3.8× liquidity; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 65–70. | Closed 05:10, −$1.92 |
| 05:10 CST | Jason · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00009656 · 35 pts · $26,145 | RawScan. Volume 4.2× liquidity; buyers 75% of last-hour trades; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 60–65. | Closed 06:50, +$1.23 |
| 05:10 CST | ROBIN · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00005690 · 23 pts · $21,049 | RawScan, CONFLUENCE. Flagged by 2 sources (boost, new_listing); paid boost attention. Band 60–65. | Closed 06:50, −$0.41 |
| 06:50 CST | WASTED · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00013700 · 29 pts · $32,608 | RawScan. Volume 7× liquidity — heavy trading; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 60–65. | Closed 08:27, −$1.27 |
| 08:27 CST | SIS · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00020800 · 46 pts · $41,025 | RawScan. Volume 98× liquidity — heavy trading; buyers 68% of last-hour trades; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 65–70. | Closed 10:10, −$7.16 |
| 08:27 CST | WASTED · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00010780 · 37 pts · $28,703 | RawScan. Volume 7× liquidity — heavy trading; buyers 61% of last-hour trades; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 60–65. | Still open |
| 16:50 CST | AAPLCAT · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00008533 · 39 pts · $26,184 | RawScan. Volume 186× liquidity — heavy trading; buyers 61% of last-hour trades; liquidity shrinking (−68%) — flagged fragile. DANGER-BAND, band 65–70. | Closed 20:11, −$12.12 |
| 16:50 CST | ONECOIN · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00010710 · 23 pts · $32,327 | RawScan. Volume 4.7× liquidity; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 60–65. | Closed 20:11, −$1.91 |
| 20:11 CST | ONECOIN · HIGH | $12.50 · 0.00009725 · 32 pts · $30,701 | RawScan. Volume 3.7× liquidity; buyers 61% of last-hour trades; paid boost attention. DANGER-BAND, band 60–65. | Still open |
What did not trade also matters, and today the guardrails are visible in the refusals: 295 SKIP lines in the day's log — 272 for liquidity outside the $20,000–$65,000 band (most of them at $0), 16 for the Solana points bar, 5 for the 24-hour no-rebuy rule, 1 because a band was full (WASTED at 01:10 CDT, "band 65-70 full (2 open)"), and 1 for the 3–12h dead zone (FAGENT, 11.0h old). The points bar refused BLUE (60 pts), BTC (57), AAPLCAT (54), PAWCAT (51, 52, 59, and 55 across four runs), SIS (50), Donald (58), uni (54), PI (52), ANAKIN (66), Anakin (52), and UNI (50). AAPLCAT shows the band logic working both ways: refused at 10:10 and 15:10 CST for liquidity of $85,375 and $83,076, then bought at 16:50 CST when its liquidity had collapsed to $26,184 — inside the band, and shrinking fast. The no-rebuy rule refused BNB, SIS (twice), PUMPE, and NNN after their stop-outs. No news-lane buys happened all day — the lane is parked.
Still open — two positions
Both positions are HIGH tier, fast-exit, bought today. Together they cost $25.00; the $128.60 paper value is the bot's STATUS mark, cash plus these positions at their latest marks. WASTED is the reason the paper value rose while closed P&L fell: it trailed at a +53.6% peak on the 10:10 CST check (floor +32.2%), then kept climbing to a +426.2% peak in the portfolio snapshot. That gain is a mark, not money.
| Token | Qty · Entry (CST) | Points / band / liquidity | Last mark / status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WASTED · HIGH · Solana | 115,955.47 · 0.00010780 (08:27) | 37 pts, band 60–65, $28,703 liquidity, fast-exit | 0.0005672 in the portfolio snapshot — peak +426.2%, trailing |
| ONECOIN · HIGH | 128,534.70 · 0.00009725 (20:11) | 32 pts, band 60–65, $30,701 liquidity, fast-exit | Open — bought on the final run, no exit check yet |
What today actually proved
- One big winner cannot cover two wipeouts. NIGGARACKET's trailing exit paid +$19.91 — the day's biggest win by far, more than seven times the next-best win (+$2.74) — and it still covered less than half of the day's $46.92 in losses. AAPLCAT (−$12.12) and NNN (−$12.22) together lost $24.34, both at −97% between checks. The arithmetic of this strategy is unchanged: the wins are frequent and small, the wipeouts are rare per trade and total.
- The warning was on the ticket for the worst buy of the day. AAPLCAT's BUY line flagged "liquidity shrinking (−68%) — fragile" alongside 186× volume. It was bought anyway, because the rule is the band and the points, not the warning. Three hours and twenty-one minutes later it was priced at $0.000003. The guardrails cap the stake at $12.50; they do not read the warning.
- The book rose $14.45 while losing $21.06 — and that is the most dangerous number in this diary. Closed P&L fell $21.06, but STATUS paper value rose from $114.15 to $128.60, a $35.51 re-marking gap driven by WASTED's mark. Yesterday's diary made the same point about SIS and ANSEM: both were above their entries at the last check, and both closed as wins at 01:10 CDT today — but NIGGARACKET also peaked at +274.7% and closed at +161.9%, giving back more than a third of its peak. A +426% mark can become a loss in one interval, exactly as the −97% closes did in the other direction.
- Today's own buys mostly lost. Of the 11 buys placed today, 9 had closed by the final run and only 1 was a win (the second Jason buy, +$1.23). The other 3 wins were October 31 entries closing today. Jason was bought twice and closed twice (−$1.92, +$1.23, net −$0.69); WASTED was bought twice, one loss and one still open; ONECOIN was bought twice, one loss and one still open. The bot keeps finding the same tokens because the same signals keep firing; the diary keeps reporting each round trip separately.
- The run ends one loss from halving. Four consecutive losses close the day (WASTED, SIS, AAPLCAT, ONECOIN), one short of the 5-loss trigger that would halve the next HIGH stake to $6.25. Cash is $51.05 with two positions open. If the next run loses, the size halves; if it wins, the streak resets and $12.50 continues.
PAPER TRADING — simulated only. Hypothetical performance. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Most new tokens go to zero. Tomorrow's diary will report whatever the bot does next with the same numbers, win or lose.
Every trade, every fee, every stop — on the public Nova Trader dashboard.
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