Run 4, Day Ten: 13 Closes, 4 Wins, −$33.98 — PUMPE Wipes Out, BNB Gives Back +115%

Day ten of Run 4 is the second full day under the v6 guardrails Paul approved on October 30 ("apply all 7"). This diary covers every bot run from 00:10 CDT — the first run after yesterday's diary was published, at 19:11 CDT on October 30 — through the last run before publication at 20:11 CDT. Nine runs in all. The bot bought 16 positions, all HIGH tier, all $12.50 under v6, and closed 13: 4 wins, 9 losses. Closed P&L: −$33.98. All numbers below are straight from trades.log and paper_portfolio.json. Nothing here is real money.

Every close — losers first, then the 4 wins

Nine of the thirteen closes lost money. The worst, PUMPE, is the same gap pattern as every day this run: bought at 10:10 CDT, priced at $0.000005 by the 15:10 check — a −94.4% fall the −50% stop never gets a chance to catch, because the bot checks roughly every 100 minutes and the token gaps between checks. Two closes were positions bought on yesterday's final run and listed as still open in yesterday's diary: STANK (bought 19:11 CDT, October 30, at 0.000283) and CATPAD (bought 19:11 CDT, October 30, at 0.00009836). Their entries are shown from that run. Every other close below was bought earlier today, and its entry is in the buys table.

Losers subtotal: −$43.68. Winners subtotal: +$9.70. Sum of all 13 SELL lines: −$33.98.

Every buy — the data point behind each trade

Points (pts), liquidity, and the "why" below are copied from the BUY line the bot wrote at decision time — not from a later scan. All 16 buys were $12.50, HIGH tier, inside the $20,000–$65,000 liquidity band. "DANGER-BAND" and "BAND-65-70" style tags are the bot's own labels on the BUY line. Social notes say "keyless sources only (no CryptoPanic key)" wherever the log says so — the news lane stayed parked and bought nothing.

What did not trade also matters, and today the guardrails are visible in the refusals. The Solana points bar refused AgenC (54 pts), BNB (50), PAWCAT (71), INKKY (53), CHUDBOB (52), SUPER (56), Leverhedge (50–52), KIM (51), Pikmin (51), and SIS (67) across the day's runs — SIS was refused at 67 points at 16:50 CDT and then bought at 46 points at 18:27, after its score fell below the bar. The 24-hour no-rebuy rule refused WASTED at 05:10 and LUMI at 18:27 and 20:11, hours after LUMI's stop-out. Dozens more candidates were refused for liquidity outside the $20,000–$65,000 band, most of them at $0. One refusal shows the band logic working as designed: at the final run a second Jason buy was refused because "band 65-70 full (2 open)". No news-lane buys happened all day — the lane is parked.

Still open — five positions

Two of the five were bought at 18:27 CDT and three at 20:11 CDT, on the last two runs of the day. Together they cost $62.50 of the $35.99 cash plus the marks below; the $114.15 paper value is the bot's STATUS mark, cash plus these positions at their latest marks. SIS and ANSEM were both trailing at the final check, with floors locked in above their entries.

What today actually proved

• The gap is still the trade. No position went to $0.000002 today, but PUMPE's −94.4% in under five hours is the same failure: the −50% stop cannot fire between 100-minute checks. LUMI's −55.9% in 100 minutes is the same story at smaller scale. The guardrails cap the stake at $12.50; they do not close the gap.
• The trailing exit gave back more than it kept today. BNB peaked at +115.2% and closed at −37.8%; iCat peaked at +83.7% and closed at −37.7%. The trailing exit still produced two of the four wins (CATPAD +$3.20, STANK +$1.56), but its two biggest peaks of the day both ended as losses. A trail that arms at +30% and locks 60% of the peak does not protect a token that doubles and then collapses in one interval.
• The points bar is doing real work — and the scores move fast. Ten-plus Solana candidates at 50+ points were refused, yet SIS went from refused at 67 points to bought at 46 points within two hours. The bar filters a snapshot, not a token: the same name can be barred and then bought on the next feed.
• Repeat tickers, repeat round trips. BNB was bought three times (05:10, 10:10, 20:11) and closed twice, both losses (−$1.45, −$4.80), with the third buy still open. Jason was bought twice and closed twice (+$2.97, −$1.57). NNN was bought twice, closed once for +$1.97, and bought again on the final run. The bot keeps finding the same tokens because the same signals keep firing; the diary keeps reporting each round trip separately.
• The book is thinner, but the open book is green on paper. Cash fell to $35.99 with five positions open, and the run total is $114.15 — down 81.9% from the $629.45 baseline. The two positions with marks (SIS +43.3% peak, ANSEM +65.3% peak) are both above their entries at the last check, which is why the STATUS value fell only $23.11 while closed P&L fell $33.98. Those gains are marks, not money: both positions are still open, and today proved how fast a peak can become a loss.

PAPER TRADING — simulated only. Hypothetical performance. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Most new tokens go to zero. Tomorrow's diary will report whatever the bot does next with the same numbers, win or lose.