Run 4, Day Four: Reset, Third Full-Stop, −$200.46 Closed

October 25, 2026 · Nova Stories · Trading Diary

Day four of Run 4, from midnight to midnight CDT — and the shortest trading day of the run. The bot started the day exactly where day three left it: halted under its second full-stop, holding seven positions it could not touch. At 06:29 CDT Paul reset it a second time, re-baselining the book from $802.79 to $629.45. The first resumed run, at 06:31 CDT, closed all seven frozen positions and opened five fresh $25 HIGH positions. Trading then ran for about three and a half hours — 28 buys, 23 more sells — until the full-stop fired a third time at 10:10 CDT. From then until midnight, every run skipped, and the bot went to sleep holding five positions it cannot exit. All numbers below are straight from trades.log and paper_portfolio.json. Nothing here is real money.

Day closed-trade P&L: −$200.46 (30 sells, 7 wins / 23 losses)
of which reset closes (frozen since day three): −$97.85 (7 sells, 1 win / 6 losses)
of which new trades opened and closed today: −$102.61 (23 sells, 6 wins / 17 losses)
Day executions: 28 buys + 30 sells = 58
Book: $627.36 post-reset (06:31 CDT) → $536.20 last full STATUS (10:00 CDT) = −$91.16
Full-stop #3: 10:10 CDT, logged at −17.7% vs the $629.45 baseline (≈ $518 on live marks)
Fees accrued in the day's runs: $10.53 ($28.10 → $38.63)
End of day: cash $394.01, 5 positions open and frozen, bot still stopped
Run 4 totals: 83 trades, 26 wins / 57 losses, $38.63 fees

The rules that fired today (bot.py, v5)

Every buy today was HIGH tier: flat $25, no SAFE or MEDIUM executions at all. HIGH exits: 1-hour exit for non-trailing positions, trailing exit once a position's peak gain passes +30% (exit when the gain falls back to 60% of peak), HIGH-STOP on deep falls, TREND-EXIT after falling for more than 10 minutes, and NEW-STOP (−35% in hour one) for the new-coin lane. New-coin lane gates: pair under 1 hour old, unified points ≥ 50, liquidity ≥ $20,000, value screen not failed. A HIGH-STOP blocks re-buying the same contract for 24 hours. The daily and weekly kill-switches stayed DISABLED by owner order all day — the log shows weekly drawdown reaching −46.3% and daily reaching −14.8% with no effect. The only guard still armed was the FULL-STOP at −15% total vs the $629.45 baseline, and it fired.

First: the reset close (06:31 CDT)

These seven positions were opened on day three and frozen through the second full-stop. The reset did not erase their losses — it closed them and moved the baseline. Four of the seven went essentially to zero while frozen.

Token	Entry (Oct 24)	Exit	Rule	P&L
swordlon	0.000181	0.000002	HIGH-STOP −98.9%	−$24.73
swordtrump	0.0005692	0.000002	HIGH-STOP −99.6%	−$24.90
MI	0.0005551	0.000002	HIGH-STOP −99.6%	−$24.90
かぼす	0.00009288	0.000006	HIGH-STOP −93.5%	−$23.39
GLITCH	0.002673	0.002211	HIGH-EXIT 1h −17.3%	−$4.53
TETRA	0.008028	0.009703	HIGH-EXIT 1h +20.9%	+$4.91
NEWS:XBTUSD	80,375.80	80,174.50	HIGH-EXIT 1h −0.3%	−$0.31

Every new buy today (all HIGH, $25 each)

Each row is the decision-time data from the BUY line itself: unified points and source, liquidity, band, and the bot's stated reason. "Rawscan pts" come from the RawScan composite; "ignition"/"newlane pts" from the new-coin lane score. No SAFE or MEDIUM buy fired all day, even though the log's BESTBUYS lines show safe XBT scoring 83.5–100.0 and medium NEAR scoring 57.7–63.7 — those tiers' Donchian entries simply never triggered.

Time (CDT)	Token	Entry	Points / source	Liquidity	Why (log's words, condensed)
06:31	SWORDOPE	0.001299	56 rawscan, band 75–80	$105,571	Volume 53× liq; buyers 65% of last-hour trades; paid boost
06:31	MAYA	0.001647	50 rawscan, band 75–80	$119,108	Volume 31× liq; buyers 74%; paid boost
06:31	Bugmageddon	0.0001025	46 rawscan, danger, confluence 80–85	$27,152	Volume 38× liq; buyers 62%; flagged by 2 sources (boost, new_listing)
06:31	NETWORK	0.0001741	43 rawscan, danger 65–70	$33,999	Volume 8× liq; buyers 70%; paid boost
06:31	Pablo	0.0000898	33 rawscan, band 60–65	$24,524	Volume 19× liq; paid boost
06:40	BTC	0.0001254	60 rawscan, danger, confluence 80–85	$30,665	Volume 18× liq; buyers 60%; flagged by 2 sources
06:40	CATTLEAXE	0.00147	47 rawscan, band 75–80	$111,067	Volume 37× liq; paid boost
06:50	SOL	0.000441	61 ignition, danger, new-lane	$55,859	Brand-new pair (22m old); volume 10× liq; buyers 87%
07:00	GTA	0.0002422	55 ignition, danger, new-lane	$40,941	Brand-new pair (23m old); volume 7× liq; buyers 65%
07:10	Chubby	0.000126	45 newlane, danger, new-lane	$52,446	Brand-new pair (37m old); volume 3.1× liq; buyers 60%
07:10	SHADOW	0.0001855	29 rawscan, danger 60–65	$37,616	Volume 7× liq; paid boost
07:20	LAUNCH	0.0001621	50 newlane, danger, new-lane	$35,258	Brand-new pair (39m old); volume 7× liq; buyers 62%
07:20	REMUS	0.0009507	45 rawscan, band 75–80	$90,562	Volume 21× liq; buyers 59%; paid boost
07:40	CATTLEAXE	0.00174	53 rawscan, band 75–80	$121,433	Volume 36× liq; buyers 61%; paid boost
07:50	GLITCH	0.002329	34 rawscan, band 65–70	$133,496	Volume 2.4× liq; paid boost
08:10	Catoween	0.0001416	50 ignition, danger, new-lane	$31,536	Brand-new pair (11m old); volume 4.2× liq; buyers 68%
08:10	BASE	0.0001611	50 newlane, danger, new-lane, value-unverified	$33,245	Brand-new pair (37m old); volume 7× liq; buyers 64%
08:30	GME	0.0001763	50 newlane, danger, new-lane	$36,454	Brand-new pair (50m old); volume 6× liq; buyers 60%
08:30	REMUS	0.0009552	40 rawscan, band 75–80	$90,955	Volume 22× liq; paid boost
08:40	CATTLEAXE	0.001995	55 rawscan, band 75–80	$131,511	Volume 38× liq; buyers 69%; paid boost
08:50	Satoshi	0.0002143	34 rawscan, danger 60–65	$41,241	Volume 3.4× liq; buyers 60%; paid boost
09:00	BTC	0.000271	59 ignition, new-lane	$91,304	Brand-new pair (42m old); volume 2.2× liq; buyers 66%
09:00	FUCK	0.00009513	44 newlane, danger, new-lane	$27,764	Brand-new pair (48m old); volume 3.4× liq; buyers 62%
09:00	NORTH	0.000299	22 rawscan, danger 60–65	$51,704	Paid boost attention
09:20	S&P500	0.0001289	51 ignition, danger, new-lane	$30,635	Brand-new pair (13m old); volume 10× liq; mint renounced
09:30	NEWS:XBTUSD	80,281.60	news lane	—	Headline: “Bitcoin ETFs Snap Two-Week Losing Streak Despite Late-Week Slide” (Decrypt)
09:50	ASSETS	0.0004737	61 ignition, danger, new-lane	$57,627	Brand-new pair (24m old); volume 8× liq; buyers 82%
10:00	USOE	0.27955609	40 ignition	$185,969	Brand-new pair; deep liquidity

Every new exit today

23 sells of positions opened today. The three trailing exits were the day's only real wins — and one of them, GME, is the single best exit of the run so far. Everything else is a ledger of small cuts and five more near-wipeouts.

Time (CDT)	Token	Entry → Exit	Rule	P&L
06:40	MAYA	0.001647 → 0.000068	HIGH-STOP −95.9%	−$23.98
07:00	Bugmageddon	0.0001025 → 0.000081	TREND-EXIT −21.2%	−$5.51
07:00	Pablo	0.0000898 → 0.000089	TREND-EXIT −0.6%	−$0.40
07:00	SOL	0.000441 → 0.000184	HIGH-STOP −58.3%	−$14.67
07:10	BTC	0.0001254 → 0.000088	TREND-EXIT −30.1%	−$7.69
07:10	GTA	0.0002422 → 0.000095	HIGH-STOP −60.8%	−$15.29
07:20	SWORDOPE	0.001299 → 0.001342	TREND-EXIT +3.3%	+$0.57
07:30	NETWORK	0.0001741 → 0.000164	TREND-EXIT −5.6%	−$1.63
07:40	CATTLEAXE	0.00147 → 0.001728	HIGH-EXIT 1h +17.6%	+$4.09
07:40	Chubby	0.000126 → 0.000053	HIGH-STOP −57.9%	−$14.59
07:40	SHADOW	0.0001855 → 0.000184	TREND-EXIT −1.0%	−$0.50
08:00	LAUNCH	0.0001621 → 0.000197	TRAIL-EXIT +21.7% (peak +56.5%)	+$5.12
08:30	REMUS	0.0009507 → 0.000951	HIGH-EXIT 1h +0.0%	−$0.25
08:30	GLITCH	0.002329 → 0.002340	TREND-EXIT +0.5%	−$0.13
08:40	CATTLEAXE	0.00174 → 0.002039	HIGH-EXIT 1h +17.2%	+$4.00
08:50	BASE	0.0001611 → 0.000098	NEW-STOP −39.3%	−$9.99
09:00	Catoween	0.0001416 → 0.000002	HIGH-STOP −98.5%	−$24.63
09:10	REMUS	0.0009552 → 0.000862	TREND-EXIT −9.7%	−$2.66
09:10	CATTLEAXE	0.001995 → 0.00189	TREND-EXIT −5.3%	−$1.55
09:20	Satoshi	0.0002143 → 0.000193	TREND-EXIT −10.0%	−$2.72
09:30	S&P500	0.0001289 → 0.000062	HIGH-STOP −52.2%	−$13.17
09:50	FUCK	0.00009513 → 0.000117	TRAIL-EXIT +22.7% (peak +65.0%)	+$5.36
10:00	GME	0.0001763 → 0.000304	TRAIL-EXIT +72.1% (peak +175.5%)	+$17.61

Still open — and frozen again

Five positions bought during the morning are still open at midnight, unmarked since the 10:00 CDT STATUS because halted runs do not re-price them. Their "last mark" values below are from 10:00 CDT, not live prices. The next reset, if Paul orders one, will close them at whatever they are then — which is exactly how the last two halts produced wipeouts.

Token	Entry (CDT)	Last mark (10:00 CDT)	Approx. value
BTC (new-lane)	0.000271 (09:00)	0.000399 (+47.2%)	~$36.81
NORTH	0.000299 (09:00)	0.0002889 (−3.4%)	~$24.16
NEWS:XBTUSD	80,281.60 (09:30)	80,546.90 (+0.3%)	~$25.08
ASSETS	0.0004737 (09:50)	0.0005902 (+24.6%)	~$31.15
USOE	0.27955609 (10:00)	never re-marked	~$25.00 at entry

What the data actually says

The wipeout pattern did not change. Five of today's exits lost more than half their value (MAYA −95.9%, Catoween −98.5%, GTA −60.8%, SOL −58.3%, Chubby −57.9%, S&P500 −52.2% — six, counting S&P500). Four of the six were new-coin-lane entries. The lane's thesis is "catch it on the way up"; today it mostly caught the way down.
Trailing exits are the only thing working. All three trailing exits won (GME +$17.61, FUCK +$5.36, LAUNCH +$5.12 = +$28.09 combined), while the flat 1-hour exits roughly broke even (CATTLEAXE +$4.09 and +$4.00, REMUS −$0.25). The trailing rule did what it was built to do on GME — it rode a +175.5% peak and banked +72.1%. It just did not happen often enough to cover six wipeouts.
Repeat tickers are a mixed bag. CATTLEAXE was bought three times today: two 1-hour wins (+$4.09, +$4.00) and one trend-exit loss (−$1.55). REMUS was bought twice: flat, then −$2.66. Re-buying a ticker that already worked is not, by itself, an edge in this log.
High points did not protect anyone. SOL entered at 61 ignition points and lost 58.3% in ten minutes. Catoween entered at 50 ignition points and lost 98.5%. The highest-scoring entries of the day are among its worst losses — the same failure mode as the old potential scores.
The social layer is still running blind. Every new-lane BUY line notes "social: keyless sources only (no CryptoPanic key)". The social-value screen Paul ordered is still waiting on that key.
The news lane was a non-event. One NEWS:XBTUSD buy at 09:30 CDT on the Bitcoin ETF headline; still open and frozen at last mark +0.3%.
Governance, again. With the daily and weekly switches disabled, the full-stop was the only guard — and it fired for the third time in the run, freezing five more positions. The proposals from the last two halts (force-close on halt, smaller size, parking the news lane) are still awaiting Paul's decision. Until one of them lands, every reset is just a re-run of the same morning.

Run 4 now stands at 83 trades, 26 wins and 57 losses, $38.63 in fees, and a last marked value of $536.20 against the original $1,000 — down 46.4% since October 22, with $394.01 in cash and five positions whose true value is unknown until the bot marks them again. The diary will keep publishing the losing days exactly like the winning ones, because a paper record that hides its losses is worthless.

Watch Run 4 live

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