Binance's $3.64 Billion Withdrawal Test: The Money Left, and Bitcoin Held Near $78,000

On Sunday, Binance let customers start taking money out again, in phases, after freezing withdrawals while it checked its systems following the theft of about $6.3 billion. The first day produced the number the whole market was waiting for: $4.65 billion of withdrawals against $1.01 billion of deposits, a net outflow of $3.64 billion, according to the exchange as reported by CoinDesk. That is a very large amount of money leaving in one day. It is also, so far, an orderly one. Bitcoin traded near $78,000 on Monday morning, down a fraction on the day after briefly touching $78,700, rather than falling apart as the withdrawals processed. General information only — not financial advice.

What the test actually showed

A withdrawal freeze is only a pause. The real question after a hack of this size is whether customers can get money out when the doors reopen, and whether the exchange has the assets to meet them. Sunday answered the first part: withdrawals processed, in phases, at a scale of billions, without the exchange reporting a halt or a new freeze in the coverage checked this morning. The second part rests, for now, on the exchange's own word. Binance said it had covered around 95% of the $6.3 billion stolen, and that the outstanding 5% is less liquid and takes longer to source at the required scale, according to Dow Jones reporting carried by Morningstar. That remaining slice is the part to keep watching, along with the proof-of-reserves update the exchange had targeted for November 2, which was the subject of Saturday's story. Until independent verification lands, the 95% figure is a company statement, not a confirmed fact.

The attribution picture also moved. The FBI formally attributed the theft to North Korea's TraderTraitor group, CoinDesk reported, and US agencies urged node operators to block addresses linked to the hackers. That matters beyond the headlines: frozen and traced funds are part of why Binance said about $3 billion had been frozen, and why recovery of the remainder may be slow and partial. It does not by itself make customers whole, and it does not say anything about how the theft happened. Those questions remain open, and this story does not answer them.

What did not recover

Bitcoin holding near $78,000 is not the same as confidence returning. US spot bitcoin ETFs lost $643 million on Friday, their largest daily outflow since June according to Farside Investors via CoinDesk, erasing four days of inflows. Institutional money was leaving before the withdrawal restart, not after it, and Monday's price steadiness has not yet reversed that flow. The derivatives market tells a similar story of caution without panic. Crypto futures volume jumped 56% in 24 hours to $111.8 billion, but open interest barely changed at $137.1 billion, which CoinDesk read as churn rather than new positioning. Trading volume rose sharply for both bitcoin and ether while open interest stayed flat, so no new money came in on either side. On Deribit, the three most traded bitcoin options were all puts, led by a $58,000 put expiring November 27 — far below the spot price, and a sign that hedging, not euphoria, is the dominant mood. Puts remain pricier than calls, though the skew spiked after the hack and has since cooled.

Elsewhere, the market was selective rather than uniformly weak. Only a handful of tokens rose on Monday in CoinDesk's account, led by monero and zcash, while AI-linked tokens fell again even as Nasdaq futures rose. CoinMarketCap's altcoin season index stood at 46 out of 100, down from 60 before the hack. None of that is a verdict on the withdrawal restart. It is a reminder that one orderly day of outflows does not undo a week in which the market lost its footing, and that the money that left Binance on Sunday has not visibly come back as fresh risk-taking yet.

The week that decides what comes next

Traders now look to a crowded calendar. Apple reports earnings after the bell on Monday, the US midterm elections are on Tuesday, and the October jobs report lands on Friday, alongside central-bank decisions in Europe, according to CoinDesk and Dow Jones coverage. Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.8% on Monday after a 2% weekly drop, while Brent crude fell about 4% to around $109 after the US Secretary of State said President Donald Trump wants to resolve the Iran war peacefully. Crypto will not trade in a vacuum this week: a risk-off turn in equities, or a surprise in the jobs data, would test a bitcoin price that is holding near $78,000 without the institutional flows that supported it before Friday. The next withdrawal data will matter too. One day of $3.64 billion net outflow, met without incident, is a beginning. Several days of it, at the same pace, would be a different story — and the pace, not just the price, is what to watch.

Sources, all checked this morning: the $4.65 billion of withdrawals, $1.01 billion of deposits, $3.64 billion net outflow, 95% replacement, FBI attribution, $643 million ETF outflow, futures volume and open interest, options positioning, and the week's calendar via CoinDesk, "Bitcoin holds near $78,000 as Binance reopens withdrawals" (coindesk.com); the Friday low, the 95% figure and the less-liquid remainder, the phased restart, and the earnings, elections, and jobs calendar via Dow Jones Newswires carried by Morningstar (morningstar.com); the weekend range, ether near $2,260–$2,275, and the fear-and-greed reading via KuCoin's daily market report (kucoin.com); the backstop, frozen funds, and proof-of-reserves target via Saturday's Nova story.